In the 600th year of Noah’s life, in the second month, on the 17th day of the month,
on that day all the springs of the vast watery deep burst open and the floodgates of the heavens were opened.
They will loot your resources, plunder your merchandise, tear down your walls, and pull down your fine houses;
then they will throw your stones and your woodwork and your soil into the water.
Death
toll and casualties
Chennai's Marina Beach after the tsunami.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey a total of 227,898 people died (see table below for details). Measured in lives lost, this is one of the ten worst earthquakes in recorded history, as well as the single worst tsunami in history. Indonesia was the worst affected area, with most death toll estimates at around 170,000.[54] However, another report by Siti Fadilah Supari, the Indonesian Minister of Health at the time, estimated the death total to be as high as 220,000 in Indonesia alone,
giving a total of 280,000 casualties.
INDONESIA
Hardest-hit in terms of loss of life and physical damage, Indonesia seems to have escaped the worst of the tsunami's economic disruption. The main affected area, Aceh, is rich in resources but far from crucial to overall output.
KEY FACTS
2004 growth: 5.1%
2005 forecast: 5.5%
Tourism earnings: 3.9% of GDP
External debts: $134.3bn
As a result, official forecasts for growth in gross domestic product (GDP)
remain unchanged, at a healthy 5.5% for 2005. And growth in 2004 was 5.1%,
at the very top end of the forecast range. Indonesian shares, which have performed
strongly this year, have continued to hit a series of record highs since the
tsunami hit.
Nonetheless, the immediate cost of reconstruction is high. The government has estimated that Aceh will require some $4bn over the next five years. The International Labour Organisation has estimated that some 1 million jobs have been lost in Indonesia and Sri Lanka.
Overview: Aceh after the tsunami
Bush aims to boost US tsunami aid
Asia quake increases poverty risk
Firms pitch in with tsunami aid
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SRI LANKA
Sri Lanka's economy was on the up before the tsunami struck, buoyed by optimism surrounding the peace process after a 20-year civil war. Now, despite earlier forecasts of a slowdown, the central bank expects that growth in 2004 could be matched or exceeded in 2005.
KEY FACTS
2004 growth: 5%
2005 forecast: 5.5%
Tourism earnings: 4.6% of GDP
External debts: $10.2bn
Sri Lanka faces a hefty reconstruction bill, since its damaged infrastructure
was more developed than in many affected areas. The Asian Development Bank
estimates the reconstruction cost at $1.5bn. More worrying still is the longer-term
effect on the crucial tourism industry, whose infrastructure - especially
on the south coast - has been hard hit. About one-fifth of hotels in the region
have been put out of action.
Nonetheless, the Sri Lankan rupee has been the strongest performing currency in the world this month, buoyed by 5% by inflows of foreign aid. The central bank has already said that aid anf other inflows will more than offset any economic losses resulting from the quake.
As in Indonesia, the stock market has been robust. Deregulation of international trade in textiles could help Sri Lankan manufacturers, and is seen as a way to make up for foreign-currency income lost by the tourism sector.
Tsunami resorts 'ready in weeks'
Sri Lanka's growth to slow
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INDIA'S SOUTH-EAST COAST
At first glance, India's economy has barely been grazed by the tsunami. But the government has insisted on bearing the brunt of reconstruction itself, rather than relying on aid, so the costs to the budget are more direct than in some neighbouring countries.
KEY FACTS
2004 growth: 6.4%
2005 forecast: 6-6.5%
Tourism earnings: 2% of GDP
External debts: $118.1bn
On the Indian mainland, the damage has been assessed at $1.2bn. According
to calculations from Citigroup - which have resulted in figures far higher
than any official estimate so far - the cost could be as high as $6.5bn, based
on a reduction of 0.4% of GDP over up to four years. Figures from banks have
been far less gloomy, however.
The Indian economy is in a strong position to weather such losses. Growth has been as high as 8% in recent years; this year's forecast, 6-6.5%, is lower only because of poorer agricultural conditions, and has not yet been officially revised downward since the tsunami.
India tsunami costs 'hit $1.6bn'
India unveils $628m tsunami aid
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INDIA'S ANDAMAN AND NICOBAR ISLANDS
Information has been slow to trickle out of the Indian islands. According to the best official survey so far, damage in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands could be as high as $600m, despite the lack of sophisticated infrastructure. Some 70% of the islands' jetties have been damaged, which spells trouble for the fishing industry, source of two-thirds of local employment.
As on the mainland, the Indian Government has refused foreign aid.
Indian islands eye silver lining
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THAILAND
Despite Thailand's high-profile tourist industry, analysts have not been persuaded
to alter their forecasts for the country's growth. Output is expected to rise
5.5-6.5% in 2005, the same as last year. Even the gloomiest forecasts do not
peg the cost higher than half a percentage point of GDP growth.
KEY FACTS
2004 growth: 6.1%
2005 forecast: 5.5-6.5%
Tourism earnings: 5.4% of GDP
External debts: $51.7bn
Thailand is better off than some nearby tourist destinations: although the
industry accounts for between 5% and 12% of GDP (depending on whether the
direct or indirect impact is calculated), the affected area around Phuket
produces just 1.9% of national income.
Unlike Sri Lanka and Indonesia, the Thai Government has shown little interest in debt relief, preferring to maintain its credit rating. Instead, the government has proposed special tax breaks in international markets for Thai products - something that a few foreign governments have reportedly informally approved.
UN holds emergency tourism summit
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MALDIVES
The Maldives are far more dependent on tourism than the other affected countries: almost two-fifths of the workforce is employed in the industry, and its wider effects help produce 74% of GDP.
KEY FACTS
2004 growth: 5.5%
2005 forecast: 5%
Tourism earnings: 42% of GDP
External debts: $270m
At present, hotel occupancy, normally almost complete at this time of year,
is around 45%, and local hoteliers say bookings are being cancelled.
On the other hand, damage has been less severe than feared, and officials already say the most urgent clearing-up has been done. Nonetheless, the Asian Development Bank says reconstruction will cost $304m, and the government is looking for some $1.3bn over the next 3-5 years. According to the ADB, the proportion of people living on less than $2 a day will rise from 43% to more than half.
Tourism revival key for Maldives
Maldives 'set back by 20 years'
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MALAYSIA
KEY FACTS
2004 growth: 7.1%
2005 forecast: 6-6.5%
Tourism earnings: 5.4% of GDP
External debts: $49.1bn
The economic impact on Malaysia is likely to be negligible. According to preliminary
estimates within days of the tsunami, the cost of clearing up the damage is
around $25m. The government has not asked for aid; indeed, it has taken a
lead in providing aid to its neighbours, notably Indonesia.
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BURMA
There is no information on the economic impact.
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BANGLADESH
KEY FACTS
2004 growth: 5.5%
2005 forecast: 5.2%
External debts: $18.8bn
No significant economic impact is expected.
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SOMALIA
The United Nations has appealed for $13.1m for the victims. Without a functioning government, Somalia is unable to deliver a meaningful assessment of its needs.
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KENYA
KEY FACTS
2004 growth: 2.6%
2005 forecast: 3.1%
Tourism earnings: 12% of GDP
External debts: $6.8bn
No significant economic impact is expected.
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TANZANIA
KEY FACTS
2004 growth: 5.2%
2005 forecast: 6.6%
Tourism earnings: 6% of GDP
External debts: $7.5bn
No significant economic impact is expected.
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SEYCHELLES
KEY FACTS
2003 growth: -5.1%
Tourism earnings: 50% of GDP
External debts: $553m
Damage has been assessed at $30m - a small figure, but nonetheless equivalent
to 14% of the government's 2005 budget. The island's tourist infrastructure
was mainly spared, but there was substantial damage to public buildings, transport
infrastructure and agriculture. The government has appealed to foreign donors
for the $30m; $5m has been pledged by China.
